From Aug forecast post early August:



Results below:
[img]http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=dia,uu[g,a]dellynay[d20040801,20040831][p][i]&r=3233.gif[/img]

MN -

What is the forecast now?

You better take care of that crystal ball. It served you well this month...for sure.

Haytham has not posted his September forecast yet. He usually drops in here when it is ready.

MN looks good,
Can you post Pasavento map for September?

nebt

having follwed his posts(MN) for some time,i have respect for his forecasting abilities.i believe that he mentioned a few weeks back that he expects a strong move off a sept 3 turning point.it was a post about "symetry".my take was that he was leaning to the upside,and mentioned that if sept 3 was a high it would be very bearisch.we are almost there and an upturn would fit nicely as i view the last 2 days as a correction of the august rally and it should last a few more days.MN-thanks for your posts and keep up the good work

pisces.

Pisces,to clarify:
MN posted before Pasavento map, which he uses as per his own posts. Pasavento map is a separate issue from his own forecasting. There is no contradiction here, just a request to see Pasavento map, if possible...

nebt

Absolutely no problem ,Nebt also enjoy your posts,and am also interrested in Pasavento map.
good luck to all , Pisces.

Thanks for the kind words. Fwiw, here's the pesavento map as of yesterday's close (look at the blue moon phases....see any similarities??). I haven't done enough work on my own (I've been on the road until late last night) to state my biases at this juncture. Some other quick notes from memory regarding cycles: we came very close to a perfect 360* price/time square (using simple dynamic squares anchored from 3/5H) on 8/27. My own 27 week cycle model says 9/3 is a time to watch. SPX natal map projected a high 8/30.

Finally, and I can't stress this enough: Pesavento maps can invert multiple times during a cycle--so don't rely on what you see/read here.

One final quickie: volume trends could take the market either way, so it's a matter who wants it more, the buyers or the sellers. When I get caught up, I'll try to post anything else that may be of interest.

MN,
Any further comment on the efficacy of the Wave 59 natal chart since your original post?


Thanks in advance,

P

P-

It's probably too early too tell since the daily trend has had an upward bias and haven't been able to test it in a down market yet. In general though, it has been a helpful aid so far. It projected an upward bias into the 30th with a downwave projection into mid-month going forward, so we shall see. I'll post a chart later with intraday forecast using 3min bars vs. actual so you and others can judge for yourself.

Best,
MN

You did a better job for Aug. than Haytham at elitetrading.net

Does forecasting add value?

Depends: Did you trade it when your forecast came out?

I never could.

To a certain extent, yes, but not based solely on the forecast. The forecast did always cause me to think twice about shorting the market (it did cross my mind more than once ) since the mid-month low--other than intraday trades, I haven't been short overnight a single day the 2nd half of the month--is avoidance of destruction of wealth adding value?

Like you, I never could/would trade solely on a model, but when supported with add'l evidence....pulling the trigger is that much easier. Otoh, if other TA evidence outweighs what the forecast (subject to inversions) is suggesting, I have no problem fading it.

MN, what is your Holy Grail now telling you for Sept.? Thanks a lot!

Here's DIA forecast for Sep:




Some other stuph to consider:
Here's mirror image foldback technique for the SPX:



Note we're sitting right at gann angle resistance, but trying to 'breakout' back above the 1x2 angle from the Oct'02 lows:



My cycle model projects a CIT circa tomorrow (many of the past dates called significant turns +/-) and a one way ticket into early Oct.



Finally, some interesting time confluences hit yesterday/today:
1.618[9/1/00H-3/19/02H] = 9/2/04
0.500[3/12/03L-3/5/04H] = 9/1/04

Thanks a lot for sharing !!!