At the risk of offending a few, anyone care to comment on this weekend's Fearless Forecast sentiment poll? Since I see it frequently cited for reasons to go long, would like to find out if/when the last time it was this lopsided in terms of bullish sentiment on here.
I guess it hasnt been discussed earlier as it seems this is the giant white elephant in the room right about now.
I think the trend will be choppy UP and resolve to the downside once more later in Oct, this is very similar to what happened in Q1 window dressing. But, a few more days like Thu and Fri would change the picture for an intermediate term bottom and the majority would be chasing higher...
- kisa
- kisa
QUOTE (vulture @ Oct 2 2005, 09:48 PM)
At the risk of offending a few, anyone care to comment on this weekend's Fearless Forecast sentiment poll? Since I see it frequently cited for reasons to go long, would like to find out if/when the last time it was this lopsided in terms of bullish sentiment on here.
I guess it hasnt been discussed earlier as it seems this is the giant white elephant in the room right about now.
I guess it hasnt been discussed earlier as it seems this is the giant white elephant in the room right about now.
vulture - i don't know if i've ever seen the sentiment more skewed but i figure the 7 sentinels carry a lot of weight with many here. i still believe that any upside is limited
.good luck!
ed rader
QUOTE
i still believe that any upside is limited
Ed, we may be brothers from a different mother.
I'm always dubious but I am giving this a chance.
BUT, as soon as my top secret indicators turn, I'm outta here.
Sentiment at Sentimentrader has turned much more bullish although not extreme.
But I see the $SOX, $NDX right at the underside of a downtrend line.
They better bust a move soon...
QUOTE (Rogerdodger @ Oct 2 2005, 11:03 PM)
QUOTE
i still believe that any upside is limited
Ed, we may be brothers from a different mother.
I'm always dubious but I am giving this a chance.
BUT, as soon as my top secret indicators turn, I'm outta here.
RD -- that was a good call, btw. it looks like the market is consolidating for some upside but it's real hard for me to get excited.
ed rader
QUOTE (vulture @ Oct 2 2005, 10:48 PM)
At the risk of offending a few, anyone care to comment on this weekend's Fearless Forecast sentiment poll? Since I see it frequently cited for reasons to go long, would like to find out if/when the last time it was this lopsided in terms of bullish sentiment on here.
I guess it hasnt been discussed earlier as it seems this is the giant white elephant in the room right about now.
I guess it hasnt been discussed earlier as it seems this is the giant white elephant in the room right about now.
Actually, we have an archive of all the poll responses, linked right at the top of the FF message board page. You can work from a chart to identify tops and bottoms and then look at the sentiment yourself.
In my experience, the opinion poll is NOT to be faded unless it's totally over the top. Even then, I'd want other sentiment to support.
The Actual Position poll is a bit different. It needs to be contextualized. Most of the traders here know that they want to be on the right side of the trend. Thus, when the trend turns up, expect most of the traders to be at least partially long. It's not Bearish until it gets really overdone and no one is fully short.
My read on the poll is that it's generally constructive for the market.
I discuss this poll in the ISA Navigator every morning.
Mark