Ah, the softs. I traded commodities for 20 years, and had some real ups and downs - a few good ups and more bad downs.
Coffee just plain flummoxed me. I totally missed out on two gigundus moves higher, and developed considerable expertise at placing stops at the far boundaries of where floor traders could run the market during bear raids or bull raids. My last year of trading I had 8 of 9 losing trades in coffee.
Cocoa, on the other hand, was a joy. Maybe it was the smaller contract or maybe it was the "smooth" feeling I got from the whole numbers in which cocoa traded. 1528, 1400, 1630, etc., oh how beautiful were those figures. Nasty old T-Bonds with their 3/32 and so fourth... yuck.
Orange Juice = thin market, bad fills, and a lot of whining from me. It didn't go on too long, though, I just quit messing with OJ.
Sugar.... As I recall there was a titanic move higher into 1974, and another zooming move up in 1981. I began trading in 1982 and I was always on the lookout for the next big bull. By 1985 sugar traded clear down to 2.74, I believe, and I gave up on it. Of course it promptly started moving up and was over 9.00 in 1986.
Lumber was a good one; don't even really know why. Should have stuck to drinking cups of cocoa on a wooden deck, and left the rest of the softs to rot in their bins and tanks.
In the end I think the leverage was just too much for me, and I was either too patient or not patient enough. 20 years and I probably learned what a better trader would have done in 3.
John, I do like commodities in general now, as far as investing. Biggest "fear" I have is deflation, but we've a ways to go before that's the real deal, IMO, and I don't think the US gov't will accept it, if the gov't really has anything to say about it.
Everybody's planting corn, so soybeans should be interesting.
Nice move underway in DBA, over 26 last I saw.
Best,
Doug
