The VRTrader.com VR Silver Newsletter - Monday2/18/2008 "Tools for the High Performance Trader" Copyright ©2008, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. LEIBOVIT FILES | by Mark Leibovit Monday, February 18, 2008
The Platinum Parabola?
Economic News and Events February 19-22: --------------------------------------------- MONDAY, February 18: Presidents Day Holiday - All Markets Closed --------------------------------------------- TUESDAY, February 19: Treasury auctions 3 & 6-month bills (1 pm ET) --------------------------------------------- WEDNESDAY, February 20: Housing Starts & Building Permits for January (8:30 am ET) Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January (8:30 am ET) Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 am ET) EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30 am ET) FOMC Minutes Released (2 pm ET) --------------------------------------------- THURSDAY, February 21: Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 am ET) Philadelphia Fed Index for February (10 am ET) Leading Indicators Index for January (10 am ET) Weekly Money Supply (4:30 pm ET) --------------------------------------------- FRIDAY, February 22: No Major Economic Releases Scheduled --------------------------------------------- Options expiration was clearly a mixed session, but despite some intra-day fireworks somestock indexes managed to recovery somewhat into the close. Net on the day, the Dow wasdown 28.75, the S&P 500 up 1.13, the Nasdaq 100 down 7.25. Advance-declines were 17 to13 negative on the Big Board. Indices had a very severe test of support on Friday, butheld the rising trendlines and managed to snap back in the last hour. They did close rightat key overhead resistance near 1780 NDX and 1350 S&P. Volume declined to the downidefor the second day running. If we can rally above Friday's highs today, especially onincreased volume - a short-term bottom may be confirmed. With good cause, bulls areanxious to point to the pullback which ended last Monday (February 11) at 12,069.17 as asuccessful test of the big January 22 low of 11,634. A Positive Volume Reversal ™ wasformed there. If 12,069.17 holds, perhaps they may be right, but I remain a bit morecautious than that. Looking at monthly charts of the Dow Industrials and applying the 30month moving average, I noticed that SHOULD we close in 12,155-12,200 at the end ofFebruary, we would be experienwould be the first violation of the 30 month moving averagesince the March 2003 lows. I am coming more and more to the conclusion that we are in thethroes of a multi-year bear market which for some stocks such as financial and REITs iswell over a year old already. I am not here to ring the death knell on this market whichwill likely experince substantial corrective rallies going forward. In fact, this being anelection year and, as I pointed out, a year ending in the digit '8', we may very well seea significant rally try at some point before year-end. The financials were up Friday. While XLF is up, financials have led this market downand still look very weak. When the financials start showing signs of life, it would be asign of a market bottom. But we have only seen early signs of this. The retailers andtechnology are leading the way down today after the earnings warning from Best Buy. BBY isdown 2.3% while the Retail Index ($RLX) is down 0.8% and technology (XLK) is down 0.6%. I remain on my TIMER DIGEST 'Sell' signal - signal that is being heavily influenced thethe VR Forecaster's Annual Forecast Model. I am currently short the major stock indexes. Ibelieve there is still downside risk to or through the January 22 lows ahead. However, toplay this move and reduce risk you have to be patient and wait for sharp rallies in themajor indexes. Maybe it will be different this time. But that is a dangerous assumption, as we watchthe twin bubbles of housing and the credit markets implode all over the developed world.The bubbles may be even worse in England. It is tough to get enthusiastic about overallstock market returns at today's valuations, and given the environment, but maybe I have toconsider that we're just seeing 'bad news' at the bottom. In economic news Friday, January import prices rose 1.7% month over month, compared tothe prior decline of 0.2%. The NY Empire State Index for February came in at -11.7,compared to consensus of 7.0. Also, The University of Michigan Sentiment survey dropped to69.6 vs. consensus of 78.00. Platinum continued its record run on Friday, closing up 57.80 at 2063.70 and hitting anew record high of 2064. It has risen creating a potentially negative parabolic pattern,but I cannot guess where the top (trading or otherwise) lies at this time. It certainlyappears that we could easily correct $200 at any time. Palladium, the poor man's Platinum,is trying to catch up a bit, and may be a catchup play as Palladium finds users that mightnot be able to afford Platinum. Other commodities were mixed with gold down 4.80 to 905.80and crude oil up 0.09 to 95.55. The US Dollar Index opened lower but recovered most of itslosses, closing down just 0.054 at 76.101. This was not positive for Gold and Silver whichsold off at the end of the trading session. Though I am very bullish on gold and silvergoing forward, I suspect any further rally attempts by the the US Dollar Index here willbe short-term detrimental to gold and silver. I keep reminding myself, however, that 'bigpicture' gold could be $3000+ an ounce and silver $100 an ounce and that we remain in atheoretical 20 year up cycle representing a mirror image of the 20 year down cycle whichended in 2000! Keep an eye on the 65 week moving average in gold. That has providedimportant support over the years and should continue to do so going forward. ---------------------------------------------Canadian, TSE and TSE Venture Commentary forour Canadian Clients updated for Monday, February 18: TSE: After meeting resistance around the 13,300 for the second time in the past two weeks onThursday, the TSE retraced from 1to 13,106.07 before closing up ont he day at 13,226.76.Volume was light on the pullback. If can hold Friday's lows, there is a decent chance wecan break through to the upside on the next attempt. Resistance is as follows: 13,351,13,415, 13,640-13,680, 13,772, 13,840 and 14,050 - above that the big highs at 14,600+.Bottom line: Unless we can first break through 13,300 and then 13,640 (the 50% and .618%upward retracement levels), this market could be headed south! A Positive Volume Reversal™ off the February 7 low of 12,747.81 creates important support at that level. That lowrepresented the culmination of a 600 point decline off the February 4 highs of 13,351.72.Recall, that the halfway retracement (roughly 13,300) presents important resistance. Thatlevel is calculated having declined 2600 points from the big high at 14,646.82 on July 20and measuring a 50% retracement off the January 22 low of 12,011. Support is now at13,106, 12,747, 12,600, 12,200 and 12,000 - the January 22nd low. TSE Venture: The TSE Venture was up six days in a row Friday touching 2584.99 butting up againstresistance of 2580. This rally was kicked off by a Positive Volume Reversal ™ formedFebruary 8. The February 7 low of 2480.44 which presents important short-term support. TheTSE Venture has clearly been showing some greater relative strength short-term. Is theregreater significance to this event? I don't know at this time. Support is 2530, 2480, and2340. A break of 2340 opens up 2250 and possibly 1800 ahead. Resistance is at 2850followed by the fibonacci number of 2975. The bear case rests on the inabiity of thisindex to breakout above the May 2007 high (3372.00). ---------------------------------------------TIMER DIGEST has named Mark Leibovit ofVRTrader.com 'TIMER OF THE YEAR' for 2006 and was named the #2 Timer for 2007. Currently,#4 for 2008. Also, for 2007, he was name the #4 Gold Timer for 2007. As you know, Mark wasnamed the #1 Intermediate Market Timer (stock market) for the 10 year period ending in2006! --------------------------------------------- Ux U3O8 Prices* February 11, 2008 Spot: $75.00 /lb. unchanged. Bull market high in the cash market is $136.00. The June Uranium Futures are trading at $80.00. Big low was $58.00 posted intra-day on August 16. The big high from June 13 is 154.95.Confirmation of a bottom should be evident when the uranium shares begin to move higher. Iwould use present levels as a long term buying opportunity. --------------------------------------------- VR TRADER.COM WATCHLISTS: Please note: The VR Watchlist is currently now only available via the VRTrader.com website accessedvia your assigned username and password. Please email mark@vrsurvey.com if you misplacedthat information. --------------------------------------------- Editors note: As you may have noticed, we have been posting our daily VR list for bothSilver and Platinum subscribers. Silver subscribers who find this useful should upgrade toPlatinum where you can pull down VR charts for many securities and watch the patterns unfold for yourself. I've extended posting this information on a complimentary basis to Silver subscribersfor the time being. There is no technical service on the planet that posts Positive andNegative VR! Why? Because they are proprietary to VRTrader.com! And, Platinum subscriberscan pull up VR Charts on just about any stock from the home page of my website. http://www.volumereversaltrader.com/vr_pla.../GetVRChart.asp A Volume Reversal ™ is change from a Rally day to a Reaction day accompanied by anincrease of volume or a change from a Reaction day to Rally day accompanied by an increasein volume. Volume Reversals ™ coming off intermediate lows or highs have greater significance in helping to definethose lows or highs and important pivot points in the marketplace. How do you use this list? VRs are buy and sell triggers and are particularly useful indefining lows or highs in stocks and stock indexes. Traders find them particularly useful, especially coming off market extremes asan indication of a change of direction. Use the VRs in conjunction with your othertechnical indicators and you've added a unique technical tool to your arsenal. List of Volume Reversals 2/15/08 - Sectors *** Sectors Positive Volume Reversals *** Insurance - Brokers EHTH - Ehealth Inc *** Sectors Negative Volume Reversals *** Banking - Savings & Loans NWSB - Northwest Bancorp Inc QCC - Quest Capital Corp Chemicals - Agricultural Chemicals CF - CF Industries Holdings Inc SYT - Syngenta AG Energy - Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing HES - Hess Corp MRO - Marathon Oil Group RDS.B - Royal Dutch Shell PLC Cl B VLO - Valero Energy Corp Financial Services - Credit Services AXP - American Express Co COF - Capital One Financial Cp PHH - PHH Corp Financial Services - Investment Brokerage - National AMTD - TD Ameritrade Holding Corp MS - Morgan Stanley Metals & Mining - Industrial Metals & Minerals ANO - Anooraq Resources Corp ANR - Alpha Natural Resources ARLP - Alliance Resource Partners LP BOOM - Dynamic Meterials Corp CNX - Consol Energy Inc JRCC - James River Coal Company MEE - Massey Energy Company PLM - PloyMet Mining Corp TIE - Titanium Metals Corp New TCK - Teck Cominco Limited Telecommunications - Long Distance Carriers TMX - Telefonos De Mexico SA L Transportation - Shipping DSX - Diana Shipping Inc SFL - Ship Finance Intl Ltd TBSI - TBS International Limited Cl A TDW - Tidewater Inc TK - Teekay Corp ULTR - Ultrapetrol Ltd Suggestions? Comments? on the newsletter service. We would like to hear from each andeveryone of our subscribers. Our email is [email=mark@vrsurvey.com"_base_href="http://www.vrtrader.com]mark@vrsurvey.com[/email].  
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