Dallas, TX
March 10, 2008, 08:00 EST
Dr. Joe Duarte's Market I.Q.


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Commercial Real Estate On The Ropes? Murky Times Ahead

What's Hot Today:
Wall Street looks ready to bounce. Just remember, it's how they close that matters.

Today's Economic Calendar: 10:00a.m. Jan Wholesale Trade. Expected: +0.5%. Previous: +1.1%. Sources: The Wall Street Journal and Marketwatch.com.

News For Thought

China's trade surplus fell 63% in February, due to decreased demand for Chinese goods from Europe and the U.S., while Chinese imports increased.

Malaysian stocks fell 10% as political turmoil threatens the newly installed government in the Asian nation. Other Asian stock markets also fell.

Latin American came to an agreement over the weekend defusing te situation between Colombia Venezuela and Ecuador.


Report: Venezuela's Corruption Runs Far And Wide.
Businessman Spills Beans On Chavez Government

A Venezuelan businessman told investigators that his rise to prominence was built on bribes and that Venezuela's Bolivarian revolution has spawned an upper class of rich tycoons who think of Miami as their private playground, according to the Wall Street Journal.

As food shortages are reportedly worsening in Caracas, the upper crust of those doing business with self proclaimed Bolivarian revolutionary Hugo Chavez, donned the Bolivarian bourgeoisie, are living the high life.

According to the Journal: "In December, Venezuelan multimillionaire Franklin Duran told agents from the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation that he loved traveling to his mansion on the wealthy island enclave of Key Biscayne to "scuba dive, swim with the dolphins and have peace of mind." Yet, the Journal added "Peace of mind for Mr. Duran may be hard to find these days. The owner of Industrias Venoco CA, a leading Venezuelan petrochemical company and lubricants manufacturer, is being held without bail in Miami on charges related to a cash-stuffed suitcase at the center of an international scandal involving the U.S., Argentina and Venezuela. He could face up to five years in prison and a $250,000 fine."

And during the interrogation, a great deal of inflammatory information was uncovered as 'After his December arrest, Mr. Duran was interviewed by FBI agents. In the FBI's account of the interrogation, a copy of which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, he described widespread corruption in the Venezuelan government of Hugo Chávez. At one point in the interview, according to the FBI account, Mr. Duran says his rise as a businessman was paved by bribing "politicians, government officials, and high ranking officials."'

At the center of the case is a suitcase full of money. According to the Journal: "The case against Mr. Duran, 40 years old, and three co-defendants stems from the August discovery at the Buenos Aires airport of a suitcase stuffed with $800,000 in cash flown in on a private jet from Venezuela. U.S. prosecutors say the money came from the Venezuelan government and was destined for the presidential campaign of Argentina's Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. Ms. Fernández, now president, denies the accusation."

To be sure, at this point there are only allegations. Yet, given the recent discovery of a laptop computer in the raided Ecuador camp of the rebel group FARC, from which documents allgeging that Venezuela's president Hugo Chavez may be financing the FARC emerged, the FBI's allegations about the $800,000 and the potential involvement of some kind of Venezuelan connection may have some potential significance.

Yet, there are some interesting points in this case:

1. Mr. Duran's lawyer says he is innocent.

2. Yet, according to the Journal 'Two of Mr. Duran's co-defendants, including his business partner in Venoco, Carlos Kauffmann, have pleaded guilty to the charges in the case, which in Latin America has been dubbed "Maleta-gate," or "Suitcase-gate."'

3. The U.S. government, though, says that Duran "and four other men flew to Miami in the months after the discovery to pressure the man caught with the suitcase, a Venezuelan-American named Guido Antonini, to cover up the source and destination of the money. The men are accused of acting as unregistered agents of the Venezuelan government in the U.S."

And here's an interesting piece of news. According to the Journal 'During his talk with the FBI, Mr. Duran was nonchalant -- and chatty. He even waived his right to counsel. When FBI agents warned him it was a crime to lie to federal officials, he disagreed. "Former President Clinton and President Bush didn't get into trouble for lying," Mr. Duran told the agents, according to the FBI's account.'

In fact, Mr. Duran seems to be a fairly nonchalant fellow who "like many of the Bolivarian bourgeoisie, the young businessman flaunts his wealth and fast-paced lifestyle. He owns a $4.6 million waterfront mansion in Key Biscayne, just a few miles from the downtown Miami detention center where he now spends his days. Last year, Mr. Duran totaled a $600,000 Porsche Carrera GT in the Gumball 3000 millionaires' road rally in Europe. His driving partner was Mr. Antonini, the man caught with the suitcase. Also taking part in the rally was the Venoco co-owner, Mr. Kauffmann, driving a $500,000 McLaren Mercedes SLR.'

Mr. Duran, according to the Journal, gained the chemical company, Venoco, at a low price, as the former owner of the company, Pedro Carmona, was one of the leading figures in the failed coup of Hugo Chavez in the early 1990s. After Chavez recovered power, Venoco was hit with tax audits and other forms of pressure, and Carmona was forced to sell. Duran told the FBI that he got the company cheap as "[It was] practically being given away."

And Duran's fortunes with Chavez continued to soar. Not only has the value of Venoco soared, after he bought it at a bargain price, but recently, Duran was able to buy the concession to supply 49 gas stations in Venezuela that were former Exxon Mobil customers, as Exxon left Venezuela.

To be sure, Mr. Duran seems to have friends in high places, as he told the FBI that 'his business is helped by an intimate relationship with Venezuela's intelligence services, where he knows "everybody." According to the interrogation account, he told agents that another key to his success is his habit of paying off important Venezuelan officials, including "politicians, government officials, and high-ranking officials." Mr. Duran didn't want to name names because of "fear of retaliation," the statement said."

The Venezuelan embassy in Washington had no comment.

And Mr. Duran, he's not all that impressed by Venezuela's current government. According to the Journal: 'Despite his rise, Mr. Duran showed disdain for Venezuela's political masters -- and his benefactors. "Venezuela is being governed by ignorant and uneducated people," he told the agents, according to the statement.'

Yet, his claims of "corruption" may have some validity. In a country with a history of "corruption," Chavez's government may have a significant lead. According to petroleumworld.com: "In the nine years since Chavez came to power, an estimated $300,000,000,000 of oil income has entered the national treasury. The exact number is uncertain due to the poor transparency of the government accounts, and because the national petroleum company no longer presents financial results to the U.S. Securities Exchange Commission or to the Venezuelan people. In parallel, during Chavez’s tenure, national debt has increased from $22,- 000,000,000 to about $70,000,000,000. Together with income tax revenues, the total income of Venezuela during Chavez’s presidency has been approximately $700,000,000,000. This formidable amount of money is nowhere to be seen in terms of public works or effective health and education programs."

According to the article (http://www.petroleumworld.com/sf08030901.htm), Chavez' administration may be the most corrupt of all time in Venezuela, with wide ranging swindles past and present that include the use of government money to buy foreign bonds, followed by their illegal sale at "black market prices," and the alleged transfer of government money to foreign bank accounts.

Petroleumworld also notes that Chavez allegedly accepted "foreign contributions for his presidential campaign and even after his election," while making "Expenditures and promises made to political leaders and countries of the Western Hemisphere, in order to buy their political loyalties," while alleging that the Venezuelan government is involved in "drug trafficking."

Editor's note: The PetroleumWorld.com article is adapted from a U.S.A. Today article written by Gustavo Coronel, a former PDVSA official.

Conclusion

This report, when taken into the context of events in Venezuela, recent and past, give a glimpse into what seems to be a complicated, and rather tangled situation involving multiple layers of the Venezuelan government and its business and financial sector, as well as alleging international involvement at multiple levels.

A resource rich nation seems to be the center of some rather shadowy circumstances, with the potential for significant problems down the line, including the possibility of factional fighting, and destabilization.

To be sure, this is one man's testimony to the FBI, and is one that has been argued as questionable by Mr. Duran's lawyer.

Yet, the USA Today piece seems to confirm some of Mr. Duran's statements.

Yet, it's another pull on the curtain covering the Chavez government. And it's worth noting.

Technical Summary:

Time To Consider Short Position In S & P 500

The market continues to move in uncertain circles, and we now have an open short position in the S & P 500.

Our one open long position, Syngenta, was stopped out with no loss on 3-7.


That's why we still recommend the currencies, gold, and energy on the long side. Visit our individual sections.


Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com




Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com



Market Moves

U.S. Oil Fund (AMEX: USO) Holds Up But Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) Breaks Down

The U.S. Oil Fund (AMEX: USO) held up last week But Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) broke below key support.



Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

So the big question is whether Exxon's break is signaling an upcoming break in the price of crude oil, or if the selling is just due to Exxon being liquid.

Lots of hedge funds and big private equity firms have reportedly been getting margin calls, and at least some of them have not been able to meet them.

That suggests that last week's selling was more due to margin calls than anything else, despite the overall bad economic news.

Still, the traditional view is that weak oil stocks will eventually forecast weak oil prices.

This traditional view has not held up too well lately. That means that for now, we hold on to USO.


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