Gene Inger's Daily Briefing . . . for Wednesday March 12, 2008:
Good Evening;
A 'seminal moment' . . . of huge Fed liquidity being pumped into mortgage markets, indeed should help get a 'bid' under some of these issues (irrespective of underlying, or actual 'worth' of agency-backed paper) and demand caused by investors switching from Treasuries into mortgage securities. However what the Fed is saying is that this will go beyond 28 days, and will be enhanced, until these markets stabilize. However, we have deleveraging; we have essentially 'shock absorbers' now for balance sheets, and it is huge. What it significantly does is not prevent the Nation's procedural slide in an ongoing recession; but cushion the rate of descent while getting ahead of 'arcane' conventional approaches that were (as forecast) merely 'pushing on a string' wastes.
Now; per our comments over the weekend just past; you have a Fed that could start a sort of 'whack' to get the bankers and other areas functioning, if not truly 'in shape'; and that was most sensitive at a point where the market was very oversold (that's just the reason we warned in our bullet points and comments about the oscillators to note the wide posting separations) that typically either plunge or draw-back from the abyss assisted a bit by tendencies to rebound into the middle of weeks prior to Triple Witch.
Aside wishful thinking; this does nothing for home prices at least for now. Interesting, of course to speculate if we now move up, test, even make a 'w bottom like we called in 2002, and then housing perks up and all is well ahead of the Elections. Well; next week we also wouldn't mind winning the Lottery (no we don't play it) . . . must view all the events (per call for 'time').. and hope they don't cut rates on top of this..disastrous if they do..after accepting overpriced collateral for good worthy Treasuries. If this fails and it may; the alternative of a pretext for discounting stocks; discounted house lows; etc., is something very nasty; but let's reserve that for the future; not as an underlying fundamental premise for the moment. These are essentially open-ended agreements, by the Fed, which are symptomatic of flat-out panic, though creative and welcomed.
Summary of the biggest (Dow Jones) rally in 5 years from deep oversold (and per our warning that with oversold; too many calling for idiotic rate cuts; a Fed that I thought had come to grasp they were being manipulated by certain interests); plus technical work clearly as noted too extreme if we weren't going to tank anew instantly; rather it seem logical snapback; as often occurs anyway, into the middle of the week prior to a week of Triple Witching Expiration); so here's a nitty gritty of this and currency swaps:
Federal Reserve and other central banks, in a coordinated intervention we wanted to occur for a very long time, finally essentially teamed-up to get hundreds of billions of dollars in fresh funds to cash-starved credit markets, allowing financial firms to 'use' securities backed by home mortgages as collateral for central bank loans. Note they aren't buying such paper, but allowing the lending of these which is like using 'Loctite' (something that unfreezes frozen screws and bolts) to lubricate and get this moving. This does not provide equity into the Fed at all (actually riskier holdings); but it helps.
That's why in the 'bullet points' I call it improving 'fluidity' of money. So stocks surged, bonds fell and the long-suffering U.S. Dollar rose -as we have been projecting as the essential ingredient to get things stabilized, or at least a prerequisite. In reaction thus it's a sign financial markets saw the plan as a viable remedy to ease a crisis, that has threatened world economic growth. But the remedy is a 'treatment' not a fix. Just sort of throwing money (the stupid rebate plan) or cutting rates are 'fixes' for addition; this is an intelligent way to approach it; as helps prevent a systemic (ie: 1930-'31) lockup, while it does less with respect to obviating issues of credit and debt than some hope. The ground-breaking swap scenario may ultimately help get money to mortgages but not where the super-optimists would like to see it; some sort of creative construction. It is therefore still a defensive maneuver; but engaged at precisely the proper spot.
It is a step in the right direction. Absolutely. Aggressive actions to boost liquidity will make it easier for banks to get money. And that's important. Other stuff was impotent. Essentially the Fed expanded its securities lending program, offering $200 billion of liquid U.S. Treasuries to primary dealers secured for 28 days. Significantly expanding types of securities that can be used as collateral for loans; the plan effectively allows banks to exchange unwanted mortgage notes for easy-to-sell government securities. (So yes if you think about it, guess who that means gets saddled with the lousy stuff; but there's no alternative, as we are all better off if we mitigate 'unintended disaster'.)
Notably, the U.S. central bank also said it would not accept private mortgage-backed securities that credit ratings agencies had put under review for possible downgrades. That takes a bite out of eligible debt, although the Fed said there may be as much as $1 trillion that would qualify for the auctions. The unusual move (maybe not so much as the banks are the primary constituents of the Fed) is that AAA-rated securities as issued by banks, are accepted. These are the 'default fear' underlying asset areas.
Daily action . . . attempts to simplify what this does. It provides liquidity to keep the deterioration of certain illiquid securities to a manageable limit; by getting it off their books (and onto the Nation's). Again; as suspected all along, this directs help toward the bankers, not the public; though indirectly it helps the capital markets functioning, in the midst of a modern-day run on banks; which may only have been sidestepped.
Auction sizes were already increased last week (part of why we started talking about a snapback rather than a 'crash', ahead of the middle of the pre-Expiration week and brought attention to the prospect of 'twists', reserves or something being done, which they did at the optimum time of most-evident weakness below the January lows as is their custom… and of course that's when an intervention must work or debacle time).
None of this will get commercial banks to loosen lending terms. Should I repeat that? This crisis extends well beyond residential home loans; in ripple effects, unintended consequences, and political ramifications that risk being pushed to the left of center. Muni bonds; student loans; auto loans; and commercial property lending are all areas of concern we have elucidated for the past year as outcroppings from the housing or property mess, and (we hasten though reluctantly add), these issues aren't magically fixed by this; though some action was both expected and certainly welcomed.
Also, it was noted, but not widely reported, that much as banks jump the opportunity, only a sum of around $15 billion is being made available in the first announced 28-day term repurchase transaction series. So; we must also say this indicates seriously deepening sense of anxiety, on the part of the Fed, despite our pleasure at the Fed's 'twist-style' repurchase move, and their action at an appropriate 'technical' time. This also dovetails unbelievably importantly with our urging of 'support' for the U.S. Dollar.
However, that does not mean (as far as scalping) that guidelines won't short post the follow-through in the morning; when too many cover or venture-in after the fact which almost invariably induces a pullback in markets, irrespective of what follow thereafter.
Sure, these moves ease the credit crunch slightly, because some of the institutions in this case are likely to use the funds to replace money they don't get from selling what they can't (packaged structured bundles) or by borrowing from other banks (reluctant) as is the norm. The money isn't being doled out to consumers; at least that's my take.
More likely, they'll shore-up their balance sheets, buy Treasuries later again; giving a slightly steadier stream of revenue (not really earnings) than their crippled loans. For now this sort of eases the fear of rising defaults, but doesn't clarify underlying asset's quality. Hence even superior borrowers could be troubled if the economy tanks anew.
Banks can't be made to lend; but it's is a step in the right direction. But from Fed fear; not confidence. An upshot is that this runs-in shorts big time but the liquidity measure falls short of addressing the magnitude of this capital crisis. More may occur; so we'll not (yet) try to divine the ensuing pattern of 'testing' or downside resumption. But we'll be quite clear to note that the overriding scope of derivatives out there dwarf anything in history, and that makes it a little foolhardy to ascribe to this terrific move more than it merits; though it merits lots of respect for the Fed moving as we argued they should in a direction counter to the maniacal cheerleading for lower rates, as are ineffective.
It is in essence a 'kick-start' to restore credit market confidence; with results pending. In this regard, we (beyond a shortest term) have to remain skeptical, as nothing less than 'time' allows Americans to work-through their incredible and historical overloads in the debt arena, and diminution of net worth primarily through home equity drops. It is inconceivable that such situations turn-around anytime soon, irrespective of what the Fed does; irrespective of restored or improved psychology, to a certain extent.
If the perception's 'hope' these measures now allow return to profligate lending or the same from the spending perspective; then these measures will indeed ring hollow for the populace, beyond the banking community. Not against asset appreciation for the regular folks; it's just that is not in the cards based on what the Fed has engineered at this point; and it shouldn’t' be. So we would hope that any respite is used by most people to shore-up their financial stability; not engage in some new speculative effort that is pyrrhic at best. There may be infusions of cash into brokers or other efforts we suspect that cloud what really happened; a way to redress the banking insolvency as clearly (in reality if one did a true audit) exists for so many; a way to cloud the Reg W meanings (the waivers earlier last year which was the clue to us, that the Fed was on top of the situation, unlike what the whiners contended) and facilitate banking activity.
Bottom-line (even simpler): the Fed will lend Treasuries in exchange for junk debt in (for the most part mortgage-backed) securities just essentially not priceable currently, and that allows banks to 'switch' debt that is less liquid for bonds that are tradable. At least some big firms like Merrill Lynch, Bear Stearns, Goldman Sachs and others will get paid (ahem… shoring them up too) helping dealers on both sides balance sheets. The program 'may be' increased if needed; anonymous Fed officials also are stating.
Again, we continue to applaud the Fed (and did so in advance thinking they knew lots better than to listen to circus barkers extolling the virtues of more rate cuts who now it seems will act as if they knew everything will be sanguine again) for positive impact it appears in stepping outside-the-box of orthodox thinking and doing what they at least are trying. It's creative salvation, rather than stubborn destruction, that low rates yield when the entire issue had little if anything to do with high rates to start with. But this is in-itself not going to free-up a tremendous amount of money for conventional lending.
It is a good move; and far closer to the center ring of this crisis circus than the others. However the stock market and consumer spending arena remain hostage to housing.
· Primary issue remains not sharp 'lending issues' or even liquidity, but of financial solvency;
· Alleviates a 'seized' aspect of credit markets; but doesn't alleviate the fundamental problem;
· Fed 'lending' via mortgage debt taken as Collateral, is an important step toward stabilization;
· Important to note: Fed is not buying but loaning on such debt. Also whole issue is a symptom;
· Meaning; moving in right direction. However, this does little to alleviate underlying overall debt;
· What is does do is restore decline to procedural norms; rather than over-the-edge debacle;
· Virtually impossible to resolve debt; but thankfully a desired focus away from rate cuts;
· Very positive step inline with desired approach to underpin the U.S. Dollar;
· Only if you stabilize the Dollar can you stop subsidizing cheap Oil & Gas overseas;
· Only by doing so can you restore equilibrium and take pressure off domestic stagflation;
· Nevertheless; while a breath of relief at the right time; does more for functionality than 'debt';
· Derivatives or other liabilities remain inherently gargantuan; not impacted by this action;
· Don't forget: commercial property implosions still should follow drastic retailing contractions;
· In best case scenario limited further upside; then renewed 'testing' should irregularly ignite;
· Thousands of retail outlets are, have, or will be closed as consumers retrench (unchanged);
· Impaired lenders will inherit many properties as they default ahead; this is not averted;
· Rentals will plunge for other properties to preserve occupancy rates pending recovery;
· Employment data started reflecting commercial construction or related equipment 'cracks';
· Detected key changes in Bernanke's last testimony; turns global extremism upside down;
· How so; because he said we have to transition from consumption to internal growth; agreed;
· Future not a question of pure protectionism; goal is new growth without abrogating treaties;
· Global economic decline started; inline with ongoing forecast of economic contagion;
· Acceptance of this reality enhanced well-planned 'coordinated' intervention with U.S. Fed;
· From the start we said world wouldn't 'decouple' from globalized 'U.S. credit pandemic';
· Equity markets remain strapped for capital raising; still limit serious recovery prospects;
· By no means 'presume' this contraction 'merely' of an average U.S. post-war duration;
· Remember our theory: 'solo-walk' '07 Dow highs masked bear-market retracement peak;
· To wit: entire forecast upside 'reflation' from 2002 to 2006 was likely just a retracement;
· Our view: bearish 'super-cycle' commenced in 2000; with no 'secular' bull market ensuing;
· Hence our forecast 2002-'06 rally was indeed a mid-cycle correction; in a super-cycle 'bear';
· Simply put: markets won't pay-up for earnings pending actual viable growth prospects;
· Deleveraging remains 'a b*tch', as unpleasant (secular) scenarios rotationally evolve;
· Volatility responds to 'traders', but doesn't alter (though mitigates) primary trend;
· Internal decline now 15 months old; per distribution warnings under firm Dow cover then.
Further points: nearer-term issues to contend with beyond above; some with macro aspects:
· Pyramiding mountains of compounding debt have not ended; facilitation assisted a bit;
· Not to suggest (identified) interim rallies won't be feasible from extremes; as recently noted;
· Recall recent view of commodity rallies 'blowing-off' at least temporarily (5th wave patterns);
· We said: reversal trigger could be: Dollar stabilization; if Fed fails to cut rates further;
· All along Fed actually trying to promote bank systemic stability; not underwrite all risks;
· Fed's goal: not save housing; merely try to salvage 'commercial banking' from disaster;
· Forewarned of February-May 2008 reset tsunami sequel for a year; others just grappling;
· Real-estate bubble forecast as just a microcosm of bigger issues; clearly as not resolved;
· Many major banks still have far larger leveraged derivative holdings than typically realized;
· Repeatedly most 'values' get 'better'; but danger of 'surprise' insolvencies clearly remains;
· As to the threat of an attack (while U.S. financially down); well we mentioned that it exists;
· Said: only gets worse if Fed continues cutting rates; that approach is 'pushing on a string';
· Best case to stabilize Dollar and ease commodities and Oil; stop cutting rates; so far good;
· After all, real world rates rise, not drop on cuts; due to dislocations triggering more contagion;
· Risk of rebounds on 'twists', reverse repurchase agreements or Reserves lowered is present;
· A variation of this is what the Fed did; which helps stabilize functionality and money fluidity;
· However; irrespective of interim 'finger in the dike' saves; the overall downtrend continues;
· Don't overlook: Adm. Fallon is resigning from Pacific Fleet (rift with Bush over war on Iran?).
MarketCast (intraday analysis & embedded Daily Briefing audio-video). . . remarks continue guidelines to catch short-term swings; including Monday's homerun short(s); and a long bias from pullbacks into midday through Tuesday close; based on the Fed finally embracing a creative approach distant from 'rate cutting', which is as desired. It remains our view (as postulated strongly here) that rate cutting is 'pushing on a string' and not a solution at this point. We are delighted that the Fed apparently now agrees.
All part of maintaining fluidity and unfreezing systems during historic 'deleveraging'. Complex issues arose in banks beyond rate concern; our key point for many months. Pundits calling for further cuts continue crazed. (Expanded in evening's text & video reports). We retain our macro March S&P 1595 short-sale, irrespective of all interim washouts long-side plays predicted this week, and as outlined within tonight's video.
Now the latest Daily Briefing audio-video MarketCast final 'chart' comments:
Daily Briefing Technical-Corner MarketCast Video
http://tinyurl.com/ywynff
(members note: Flash-based video plays in all browsers; needs 'free' download / plug-in only if prompted)
Bits & Bytes . . . provide investors ideas in a few stocks, often special-situations, but also covers an assortment of technology issues (needed for assessment of general factors in tech overall, or as compelling developments call for) that are key movers in the NDX, SOX or S&P, plus ideas www.ingerletter.com thinks might merit further reflection.
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Scheduled Economic News Releases:
Thursday:
· Initial Jobless Claims (weekly);
· Retail Sales (poor; bigger disasters yet ahead..I know);
· Import/Export Prices (higher on former);
· Business Inventories.
Friday:
· CPI (anyone still think only 'core' matters?);
· Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (prelim).
In summary . . events continue reminding us of risks Allied fighting forces face, given continued attacks on free peoples, by elements including organized terrorist forces in various countries. A world addressing terror threats continues, as domestic issues absorb us more while as we also focus on Middle East and World War III avoidance.
Our 2007 view had been that we're in an ill-defined recession; finally recognized as it evolves. As to whether it descends into something akin to post-railroad debacles way back in the 1880's; is likely what the Fed worries about; never talks about; but actions affirm they're desperately engaged to stabilize fluidity of functionality. Regression to the mean or traditional affordability 'rules' likely hallmarks of home lending guidelines for years. I hasten to add, whether depressing or realistic (per 3 year forecast here of the housing break combined with 'junk debt' investment avoidance); stocks eventually get interesting. Gilded Age globalists unflaggingly failed to see the era's transition, or detect the public mood of increased populism; essential reform calls; and low taxes.
McClellan Oscillator finds NYSE 'Mac' fluctuating via intervening bull-bear shuffles on the NYSE & NASDAQ. Reflex rallies allowed 'risk off-loading' tactics; as 'Street' debt holdings aren't investment grade. Multi-month efforts evolving. In this regard, we suspect that strategy fluctuates with markets; trying to salvage attractiveness of many stocks, whose expectations remain out-of-line optimistic for the actual world situation.
Issues continue including oil, terror; China (including latest Pentagon hack spying; a type of action that if we were financially sober would provoke warranted redressing), Pakistan; certainly all the Middle East, Europe; funny money NY economics. Noted for a year: includes international dependencies, as outcroppings of a radical extremist globalism which is neither pro-American nor conservative; even as true conservatives support fair trading; constrained spending, and not squandering our US crown jewels.
Thirteen months ago I called this an 'accident waiting to happen'; commenting that it is affirmed historically that long-duration periods of free money (Gilded Age mentality) do not create permanent liquidity; but give that illusion while the opposite transpires. There will be various trading swings; through 2008. We scalp these, while retaining our (adjusted) position short from March S&P 1595 for now, which continues clearly to represent the belief that while rallies occur; they remain within our structural bear.
Since early 2007 we noted economic conditions more similar to post the Gilded Age ending in 1929, the panic of 1907 (hence our call for the start to be the 'panic of 2007' last year at the end of that Gilded Age, and it's NOT coming back (party over whether they like it or not, as they didn't or only now 'start' to 'concede' there's needed rehab). It is not a structure entirely resolved by rate cuts, stimulus, 'miracles', arrogance of a few who think they have influence; although all can have short-run responses at best.
Long-run: 'new' adults in charge will enable better fiscal and public policy, than what passed for prudent economic or money management in the past era. We played the upside so long as sensible (Oct. 2002 - early '07); look forward to doing so yet-again, in a macro perspective. On the micro-front; we do so only momentarily; as scalps. In the case this is a signal of an evolving bottoming structure; that still takes months not hours or days to sort out; and that means the best-case would become a 'w bottom' (I respect what the Fed's trying; so we won't even address the worst case just for now). I have warned that a stronger Dollar would ease the inflation insanity; so that's a clue for one area to keep an eye on in the days immediately ahead.
Enjoy the evening,
Gene Inger,
Publisher
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