Gene Inger's Daily Briefing . . . for Monday March 17, 2008:
Good Weekend;
A 'sign of the times' . . . is not the news per se of a bailout; nor the commonly-heard refrain that 'fear of what we don't know' has brought the market to its knees. Why are we saying it thusly? There are so many analogies to warnings here over the year just past, that I can't begin to start. But we can simplify it this way: Bear Sterns as 'dealer' or clearer, is historically on the other side of the ledger. Anyone remember the 'crash of 1987' we forecast back from San Francisco and LA on the ancient FNN (morphed into CNBC). Recall that Bear was part of the solution not the problem. While pundits are saying 'we don't know'; well, we saw the issues. Whether the first notable NASD net-capital liquidation in Irvine, which caused us to dig into 'why' they sold everything else, and learned it was because they held CMO's and CDO's in the 'house account'; it was a head's-up clue a year ago… especially when we dug to learn lots of firms not only were in leveraged derivatives, but had CMO's & CDO's in their house accounts.
While we were already bearish (technically for broadening tops early and during '07, and as the market internals were deteriorating while others proclaiming the opposite, were either ignorant of the reality, distorting the facts, or delusion about the world as well as market technicals); it was the combination of the 'house account' revelations, the ensuing 'Reg W' waivers (which proved the Fed was on-top of the situation from the start, contrary to those who months later immorally blamed the Fed for bankers, and apparently some brokerage firm's internal money management's own greed), as well as the realization (something we've warned of for years including leading-up to a crucial secular top in 1999-early 2000) that trading leverage (derivative or otherwise) was nowhere remotely in the realm that a majority of investors perceived it as being.
Once we got past 9/11 and inflation-adjusted 'free money' (which was the real reason for the 'bubble's growth' and) an absence of oversight the real reason the President is incorrect in blaming housing -because the lack of prudent-man enforcement and loan guidelines (which could easily have been governmentally-mandated) given that as we have also noted, two economists in the employ of the Fed warned Greenspan where, in a couple years, it would lead, way back in 2002- resulted in (also for a year now) a very basic comment here: 'housing's a microcosm of greater macro debt issues'.
Ominous Calamity Risk Growing?
So we don't know why 'they' say everyone fears what will surface next or who will be in trouble. We once posted (and said we wouldn't again and won't) the list of virtually all the major money-center banks that had unconscionable holdings in derivatives. It was not my desire to panic anyone (that is amply done today by the financial media's after-the-fact haranguing; often from the same 'perpetual prosperity' crowd cheering, when we were warning, based on fact, not propaganda, of what was setting-up to hit us hard). We told ingerletter.com members once; referenced the Reg W waivers in a defense (earned) of the new Bernanke Fed repeatedly; emphasized the gargantuan nature of the issues belied any ability of the Fed to redress; but that they could 'ease' the situation into a 'Chinese Water Torture' scenario, culminating with a capitulation; typically well after Wall Street had completed the distribution many disguised as an accumulation, if you think about the nonsense they spouted about valuation criteria.
All along it was (and remains) our view that the Fed is avoiding Hooveresque policy by simply doing everything in their power to preserve the commercial banking system in the United States. After all, the elected officials of both parties had generally been a bunch of whiners and typical politicians; with few avoiding earmarks, patronage, or worrying about jobs rather than the stupidity of lower cost foreign consumer goods. It is notable you won't even have that now, since they destroyed first, most of our solid U.S. growth engines; next our reasonable free trade policies (replaced by unfettered anti-American globalist extremist radicalism that could have been engineered by any adversary, but not by patriotic Americans); and then you had a White House (that to this day) portending that to be for fair free trade is somehow equated to isolationism.
That's rubbish (no offense; to be ignorant is neither conservative nor liberal; just well .. out of it.. at best .. and at worst, involved in an international cabal to destroy us). It is not even the stupidity of trying to equate a reasonable trade agreement such as is the case with Columbia, with that dealing with Asian countries that sucked our blood for years, more than any trade negotiator or sitting President ever intended. A Prez saying that sovereign wealth funds should come here 'cause it's our money anyway; is closer to the truth; but it's not the petrodollar recycling that characterized the past.
Why am I ticked off? Because they blamed housing; rather than an absence of policy that invites the other side of radicalism into the center ring of this circus; the lefties. At the risk of offending someone, I would hope that both parties clarify that they're totally capitalist; that free-market capitalism does not equate with unfettered trade stupidity; that free trade does not mean only for the other sides; and that if there are no growth engines hardly left in the U.S.; then who's going to buy all that imported stuff anyway.
The President is right. We don't need a bunch of new laws. We do need leadership; a crowd that is willing to enforce the existing laws, and provide oversight. Even all such 'fully-conforming' guideline loans for housing would have been sufficient; just stop the packaging, and root-out the packager-paying of the rating-agency misrepresentations as nothing structured (with multiple resets hence intended to fail) is investment grade.
We need candor from both parties before this spins out of control or creates societal discord. For the media to celebrate a huge short-covering rally that means nothing as S&P said 'we were half way through the debt clearance at bankers' was ignominious to say the least. Do you have an idea what the other half could look like? Even up in the solid Midwest, an experienced hand told me today that it takes 20 months from a commencement of foreclosure proceedings until the matter is closed. An eternity with respect to markets; real estate or equity. And that was not a bubble-mania area.
So, what's the outcome? I bet even in Florida you didn't hear about the Boca Raton riots. No; not for the last call at Neiman's, or the Nordstrom Anniversary sale. But for the 500 'subsidized housing' units made available in Palm Beach County (more).
So.. we know folks say you have to buy when there's blood in the Street. There's not that much blood though; and it's sort of like the first lifeboat departed Titanic; while a few passengers debated whether the water was too cold to bother dipping toes in. It is a freefall situation risk; but we've seen this before. Often (especially with Expiration looming) you pullback from the brink. That doesn't mean you don't plunge thereafter; or for that matter if one or two more dominos rollover even sooner. Risk is ominous, in a macro way; and has been for more than the year of our warning incidentally. We say that's because the housing burst initially shifted funds into stocks, so we played it for a good while; but at the same time (2005-early 2007) believed that underlying it was a message; with the governmental policies ignorantly destroying one engine of growth after another (through multiple administrations and congresses); that a 'piper was looming offstage' waiting to be paid; and that we blew the reflation opportunity in a big way, by virtue of encouraging spending, versus savings, during a golden time to shore-up, rather than seductively titillate with cheap bobbles, the American families. I correlated it with leveraged debt (bread and circuses) for the masses; at our peril.
Daily action . . . notes all of this brings to the surface the magnified ramifications we said from the start would develop; and we still have commercial property; retail heavy disasters; and credit card delinquencies (as well as 'credit line' default since typically those are 2nd mortgages which in many cases now have zero equity to buttress those of course) ahead. Not to mention amounts of total Fed resources already committed; no assurance that today's bailout (which is a reprieve really; as Bear broke badly) by any means succeeds (that's why the rumor of JP Morgan after them on the cheapo; thus it will be no surprise if they get them for pennies on the dollar as we've noted); and other banks, which remain reticent to extend terms to each other. Shades of the 1930's incidentally; as aside the coordinated intervention by the Fed; we'd be there. I continue to admire Chairman Bernanke for doing what he's able given the challenges he inherited; and those who blame him..well, simply put: it is they who were deceitful.
I think the Prez really probably means well but is over his depth. The Treasury Sec'ys in his element; but frankly we were past a point of easy deleveraging before he took office. So in fairness to the 'regime', some are mitigating as best they can. Let's face it; when FDR said 'all we have to fear is fear itself' (funny how the media mentioned a colleague of Obama when he quoted him; and none I heard said it came from FDR in the depths of the Great Depression.. oh well, maybe Obama's minister educates him on revisionist history.. not that I'm trying to be political.. but hey this is the U.S. of A.).
As to FDR's quote: all we had to fear was not fear; actually fear was the only thing to not worry about. We were already 'down the drain' a good bit, the banks were closed periodically, and unemployment skyrocketed (as is the inaccurately reported case by the way now; though not yet to that extent). We didn't need to fear fear; it was a done deal. So President Roosevelt was trying to uplift our spirits; absolutely correct. What's he supposed to do? Exactly that. Ditto George W. Bush. Interesting comparison. But of course the problem is we're in the netherland region of the decline. More banks in trouble; many more months (or years) of foreclosures; and minimum of years prior to an prospect of real estate appreciation (housing was the remaining growth engine we warned remaining several years ago; tech is also too outsourced, commoditized and too regional to be a National-level growth engine of the magnitude as is needed now) again. In my general thinking, the hot bubble areas will not see those price levels (at least inflation-adjusted) for a generation. So that's the bullish alternative, for the kids.
That by the way doesn't mean their won't be property deals sooner (even I'm starting to show some interest, but not much due to carrying costs of property during the long winter..), and equity deals for sure; but not yet. Whether a bang ('crash') for the large Averages (really broad markets had never recovered all that much) or a whimper (the Chinese Water Torture); we'll assess how we get to the next generation buying level.
Meanwhile, so long as the bulk of analysts keep contending 'values' are attractive; it's feasible we get a sharp rally here and there; but the trend is down; at least untested. And there's no particular reason to assess a point arrived at discounting future profits as many say. Why don't they question if future losses or contractions are discounted?
Print more money; keep shopping; keep borrowing? Cut rates more than 1%. Oh my; the inmates are indeed if not running the asylum; dictating the rules to a few adults in their payroll database. Victimless crime? Not to defend NY's Gov'nor; but how dare a crowd of proselytizers' who set-up pension funds, municipalities, and house accounts for demolition and preached greed; gang-up on a client of a less expensive bordello.
Is this a set-up for a big rally rather than a crash? How about both potentially? That's a subject I'll broach in this weekend's weekly-basis chart video 'technical corner'. (We invite investors to join ingerletter.com; no sample trials during this; we have devoted energy over the past year to alert investors to risks; we welcome their membership.)
At the same time, let's emphasize that next week is Triple Witching (Thursday due to Good Friday's holiday hiatus); that Bear Sterns may not exist as we know it Monday; that the BBB downgrade by Moody's late today is a bit silly; and that the limitations of a Fed to battle all of this beyond what we've outlined, has been repeatedly validated.
Since we remain 'on-goal'; 'on-target'; and 'zeroed-in' on what is and what isn't keen in all of this; we'll just reiterate last night's remarks in brief before resuming Monday comments. The entire saga of our 'traders gone wild' videos are in archives below.
Paine Weber is being shopped; UBS has no further comment. Merrill is firing more in the non-broker overhead realm; JP Morgan presumed the logical Bear buyer. In most ways they would be keeping the clearing house and dumping everything else. Clients are nervous; hedgers are in trouble (especially if still leveraged); and we think most of everything you've heard from the disingenuous crowd or the naïve, has related to the 'covering' the getaway of a year-plus long distribution during a stealth bear market. Of course we did our best to candidly share what we suspected or ascertained during it all; and maintained a rebound short (still) from the rebound phony all-time S&P high (because of concentration into cap-weighted stocks to give the illusion against what I saw in reality as nothing more than sucker-rallies before the next phases down). Now you hear the naïve saying that we have to go up because 'sentiment is negative'. We say you could (pattern forecast reserved for ingerletter.com members).
But, the sentiment argument for the primary bottom is premature. This is a secular hit to the economy and the market; and that is why we said there was no 'fluffy froth' as we made the spike high last year. It' because that ended a bear market rally forecast from 2002-2006/early 2007 which was a cyclical upward reflation in a long-term bear, that began in 1999-2000. I never heard anyone else offer this theory; which doesn't in any way prove I'm right; but the Advance/Decline and overall breadth of the bull tend to support my argument. If so; the good news is this takes us to a secular low in time.
That will then be periods of stabilization; with (Commentary Reserved for Subscribers…..) doing far better than big-cap promoted institutional darlings (some of which will work too only after the deleveraging catharsis is over); and in-the-mix a generational buying opportunity for all our members who are still in high school and college or just newlyweds. Very seriously; that's not too many (unfortunately, 'cause they won't realize how terrific the opportunity will be, since they're mesmerized by those decimating their funds trading 'stuff' all the way down). For us middle-aged plus types; it could be fun too.. and just maybe the opportunity to reinforce our prosperity heading into the (reserved) froth.
(Commentary Reserved for Subscribers…..) Chairman Bernanke agrees… you did essentially hear him say so. Oh sure; I shared my views which he was more genteel about; but they are similar. I believe he said we have to transition from consumption to being an industrial power, again. I believe that's why globalists accused him of being a democrat. Poppycock. He's an American; since when is it political to want multiple growth engines and jobs for your fellow Countrymen? I suppose it is if you favor unfettered economic sedition.
And by all means stop the funny math by which you outsource National Security and invite interlopers who aren't vetted by any normal measure to our technical knowhow (that's the same knowhow of engineering that globalist extremists are outsourcing). I also insist that Congress ask hard questions and embrace bipartisan oversight now. (Of course I can't do any of this; but you can. Prod your politicians into real service.)
Bottom line: macro signs as interpreted; including (updated again) the following bullet points:
·
Primary issue remains not sharp
'lending issues' or mere liquidity, but of financial solvency;
·
Raising margin requirements on
'commodity or oil futures', will only have nominal impact;
·
(more than a dozen bullet points
reserved for ingerletter.com members only);
·
Deleveraging remains 'a b*tch', as unpleasant (secular) scenarios
rotationally evolve.
Further
points: nearer-term issues to contend with beyond above; some with macro aspects:
·
Pyramiding mountains of compounding debt have not ended;
facilitation assisted a bit;
·
Not to suggest (identified) interim rallies won't be feasible
from extremes; as recently noted;
·
Bear Stearns has a new building in Midtown; equivalent to name on
a ballpark (ominous);
·
(another dozen near-term key points reserved for ingerletter.com
members only).
MarketCast (intraday analysis &
embedded Daily Briefing audio-video). . . remarks continue guidelines
to catch short-term swings including Friday's 'traders go wild', on debacles that we
outlined likely almost a year ago. Remains our view that rate cutting is 'pushing on a
string' and not a solution at this point. Stop the insanity! Delighted to see Chairman
Bernanke imply agreement; but will he prevail? Even so the Dollar is again weak; implying
insufficient ammunition to underpin matters -or resolve- exists.
All part of maintaining fluidity and unfreezing systems
during historic 'deleveraging'; but not defeating the
primary trend nor our analysis about that ongoing activity. Complex bank issues arose
beyond rate concerns; our key point for months. Pundits calling for further cuts continue
crazed. (Expanded in evening's text & video reports). We retain our macro
(forward-rolled believe it or not) June S&P 1599 short-sale; it's irrespective of
interim short washouts & long-side plays; as outlined in tonight's video.
Bits & Bytes . . .
provide investors ideas in a few stocks, often special-situations, but also covers an
assortment of technology issues (needed for assessment of general factors in tech overall,
or as compelling developments call for) that are key movers in the NDX, SOX or S&P,
plus ideas ingerletter.com thinks might merit further reflection.
--
In summary . . events continue reminding us of
risks Allied fighting forces face, given continued attacks on free peoples, by elements
including organized terrorist forces in various countries. A world addressing terror
threats continues, as domestic issues absorb us more while as we also focus on Middle
East and World War III avoidance.
Our 2007 view had been that we're in an
ill-defined recession; finally recognized as it evolves. As to whether it descends into
something akin to post-railroad debacles way back in the 1880's; is likely what the Fed
worries about; never talks about; but actions affirm they're desperately engaged to
stabilize fluidity of functionality. Regression to the mean or traditional
affordability 'rules' likely hallmarks of home lending guidelines for years. I hasten to
add, whether depressing or realistic (per 3 year forecast here of the housing break
combined with 'junk debt' investment avoidance); stocks eventually get interesting. Gilded
Age globalists unflaggingly failed to see the era's transition, or detect the public mood
of increased populism; essential reform calls; and low taxes.
McClellan Oscillator finds NYSE 'Mac' fluctuating via
intervening bull-bear shuffles on the NYSE & NASDAQ. Reflex rallies allowed 'risk
off-loading' tactics; as 'Street' debt holdings aren't investment grade.
Multi-month efforts evolving. In this regard, we suspect that strategy fluctuates with
markets; trying to salvage attractiveness of many stocks, whose expectations remain
out-of-line optimistic for the actual world situation. In some regions, as DC debates
'Recession' or not; a light 'Depression' is more likely.
Issues continue including oil, terror;
China (including
latest Pentagon hack spying; a type of action that if we were financially sober would
provoke warranted redressing), Pakistan; certainly all
the Middle East, Europe; funny money NY economics. Noted for a
year: includes international dependencies, as outcroppings of a radical extremist
globalism which is neither pro-American nor conservative; even as true conservatives
support fair trading; constrained spending, and not squandering our US crown jewels.
Thirteen months ago I called this an 'accident
waiting to happen'; commenting that it is affirmed historically that long-duration periods
of free money (Gilded Age mentality) do not create permanent liquidity; but give
that illusion while the opposite transpires. There will be various trading swings; through
2008. We scalp these, while retaining our (adjusted) position short from June S&P 1599
(rolled), which continues clearly to
represent the belief that while rallies occur; they remain within our structural bear.
Since early 2007 we noted economic conditions more
similar to post the Gilded Age ending in 1929, the panic of 1907 (hence our call for the
start to be the 'panic of 2007' last year at the end of that Gilded Age, and it's NOT
coming back (party over whether they like it or not, as they didn't or only now 'start' to
'concede' there's needed rehab). It is not a structure entirely resolved by rate cuts,
stimulus, 'miracles', arrogance of a few who think they have influence; although all can
have short-run responses at best.
Long-run: 'new' adults in charge will enable better
fiscal and public policy, than what passed for prudent economic or money management in the
past era. We played the upside so long as sensible (Oct. 2002 - early '07); look forward
to doing so yet-again, in a macro perspective. On the micro-front; we do so only
momentarily; as scalps. In the case this is a signal of an evolving bottoming structure;
that still takes months not hours or days to sort out; and that means the best-case would
become a 'w bottom' (I respect what the Fed's trying; so we mitigate addressing worst
cases just for now but have outlined possible realistic targets to members on macro
overview videos). I've warned only a stronger Dollar would ease the inflation insanity
(the one they distort); that's a clue to keep an eye on in the days immediately ahead. So
far a faded clue.
Enjoy the week!
Gene
Gene Inger,
Publisher
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