Todd Market Forecast Stock Market Update for Wednesday (03/26/08)
www.toddmarketforecast.com

Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 p.m. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.


DOW - 110 on 550 net declines
NASDAQ COMP. - 17 on 450 net declines

SHORT TERM TREND Bullish
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND Bearish


More negative economic news today pushed the stock market lower. Ironically, one piece of bad news, the 5% surge in crude oil helped keep the averages from being even lower since oil stocks are part of the Dow and S&P 500.

In addition, Oppenheimer cut the prospects for Citigroup and this cast a pall over the financials and Treasury Secretary Paulson repeated that the housing sector remained the greatest threat to the economy.

We show a chart of the McClellan Oscillator to e-mail recipients and it shows that we also had a short term overbought condition to contend with. In the recent past, when it has reached +100 and turned down, there has been a tendency to pull back. This is why I said in yesterday’s update that we suspected that Wednesday would be down.

Gold had another strong day and as we said earlier, Crude had a gonzo day, unfortunately. In fact, most commodities were again moving higher. Bonds fell back by a bit in spite of the fact that stocks were lower. Lately that has been an inverse relationship.



NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS:

Durable goods orders dropped 1.7%. The expectation was for a rise of 0.7%. Oil inventories rose only 88,000 barrels. The consensus was for a rise of 1.8 million barrels. New home sales were 590,000. More than the expected 578,000. On Thursday we get the final GDP number and initial claims.



BOTTOM LINE:

Our intermediate term systems are on a sell signal. Mutual fund investors are in cash.

Short term ETF traders are in cash. We’ll stay there for now.


OTHER MARKETS

We are on a buy for bonds as of February 21.

We are on a buy for the dollar and a sell for the Euro as of March 24.

We are on a buy for gold as of March 25.

We are moving back to a buy on Crude as of today March 26.

We are long term bullish for all major world markets, including those of the U.S., Britain, Canada, Germany, France and Japan.



STEPHEN TODD : A SHORT BIOGRAPHY

Editor and publisher of the Todd Market Forecast, a monthly stock market newsletter with an included nightly hotline.

Steve has published articles on the stock market in the following publications: Barron’s, Stock Market Magazine, Futures Magazine, The National Educator, and others.

His stock market commentary is heard on the following stations: CNBC, Bloomberg, CNNfn, Associated Press Radio, Business Radio Network, CKNW in Vancouver, British Columbia, KFWB, Los Angeles and ROBTV in Toronto, Ontario.

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