As many know, I've been using two trading signals for the seven sentinels: buy signals when all seven say "up", and sell signals when all seven say "down". Thus I stay long until I get a sell signal, then sell and go short until a buy signal, etc. I haven't been completely satisfied with this method this as too often gets me out late- only when the trend has reversed. I'd much rather exit prior to the reversal, then wait for the reversal signal to initiate trades in the other direction, or a reconfirmation of trend from the SS's to get back in.
Thus, I'm adding two more signals for a total of 4. The two new ones are "close out longs" and "close out shorts", which can be early warnings of reversal, or simply an indication of a "stall" in the main trend. The latter two are much more sensitive than the seven together, and they give liquidation signals much earlier than the full reversal signals, or within an ongoing trend.
The last two COL (close out longs) signals generated by the new rules are shown on chart. Since the last full signal is a buy, and no reversal has been signaled, my position would be (using new signals) flat -having closed longs, waiting for a new signal. My actual position is long, because I did not act on the COL's, and I will remain long with stops in place, because I see the seven gearing up for a new buy signal, and because sentiment has been extreme bearish (for this context) lately.
I was very disatisfied with staying long even though I watched the MCO's roll over in early August, and was extremely uncomfortable about it. Thus I've developed more sensitive signals to tell me when to get out prior to, or in the absense of, a full blown trend reversal. That is to say, at a time like right now, using the new signals, I'd be out two weeks ago, but NOT short. Just cash.
The new signals are based on SPX, NYMO, and TRIN for SPX related trading ---- and on NDX, NAMO, and TRINQ for NDX or QQQQ related trading.
I'm not yet ready to release the exact formulae, since I'm still "tweaking".
These are my methods, and of course you have your own. If they help in some way, great. If not, that's okay, too. Btw, for those who trade in much shorter time frames - you may not want to discard, out of hand, the value of knowing the trend in the framework shown here, in order to provide CONTEXT to your shorter term trends.
Good Trading. D
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